Top 5 Takeaways This Week June inflation came in well below expectations with the Consumer Price Index declining 0.4% for the month. Lower energy prices were the primary driver of the decline in inflation. Core inflation remained subdued, showing no monthly increase during June. Inflation trends continue to move in a favorable direction, though additional data will be needed to confirm the trend. Our outlook remains constructive for both equities and fixed income as infla

We continue to view equity investments in a positive way and are broadening our industry participation beyond technology and energy. We also expect interest rates to continue to decline and will add to our fixed-income holdings as appropriate.

Top 5 Takeaways This Week Manufacturing and industrial production continued to strengthen during May. Retail sales posted their strongest year-over-year gain since early 2023, reflecting resilient consumer spending. Pending home sales continued to improve, supporting a more constructive housing outlook. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates while signaling operational changes under new leadership. Our outlook for both the economy and financial markets remains positi

Fairway Asset Management's President Rudy Thomas shares his insights in this Economic Update for 6/10/26.

Top 5 Takeaways This Week: May payroll growth significantly exceeded expectations, with 172,000 new jobs added. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% for the third consecutive month. Manufacturing employment continued to improve, a positive sign for domestic production. Average hourly earnings accelerated during May, indicating continued wage growth. We remain constructive on both equities and fixed income, while closely monitoring developments in the Middle East.

Top 5 Takeaways This Week: Producer prices came in below expectations, with PPI rising 0.5% in March versus a 1.1% forecast. Energy costs remain elevated, increasing 8.5% and continuing to drive inflation pressures. Core inflation showed moderation, rising only 0.1% for the month. Inflation is likely to remain elevated in the near term, largely tied to energy market disruptions. The Fed is expected to remain patient, with potential rate cuts later in the year. This mornin

Top 5 Takeaways This Week: Producer prices came in hotter than expected, with PPI rising 0.7% in February. Energy costs are contributing to inflation pressures, largely tied to geopolitical tensions. Manufacturing data showed modest improvement, with new orders turning slightly positive. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, citing uncertainty and inflation concerns. Markets remain volatile due to geopolitical risks, though we continue to invest cautiously. On Wednesday of

Top 5 Takeaways This Week February payrolls showed a loss of 92,000 jobs, well below expectations for job growth. The unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.4%, though still below last year’s peak. Retail sales remain strong, rising 3.2% over the past twelve months due to higher personal income. Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is dominating financial markets, overshadowing economic data. Oil prices have risen due to the conflict, though we currently expect the inc

Top 5 Takeaways This Week: Fourth-quarter GDP slowed sharply to 1.4%, largely due to the government shutdown and weaker exports. Government spending contracted by 5.1% , negatively impacting overall economic growth. Exports declined 0.9% following a strong surge in the prior quarter. Housing remains a bright spot , with building permits and new home sales near multi-year highs. Economic growth could reaccelerate once budget issues are resolved and the federal government is

This morning, we received the ADP Private Employment Report for January. Private businesses added a relatively small number of jobs during the month, totaling only 22,000. This compares to a downwardly revised 37,000 net hires in December. The healthcare sector added 74,000 workers in January, while business services declined by 57,000. Under normal circumstances, we would also have the government-sponsored Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report on Friday to compare wit

We are finally starting to see various agencies catch up from the government shutdown in October and November of last year. One of the most watched economic releases is always the quarterly GDP numbers. The final third quarter number showed growth of 4.4%, a significant jump from the 3.8% level of the second quarter of 2025. This was also the strongest growth quarter since the third quarter of 2023. The increased strength can be attributed directly to gains in consumer spendi

This week, we have seen the two key inflation measures released that wrap up last year’s reporting. The first release was the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for December of 2025. The monthly increase was 0.3%. Interestingly, given the earlier government shutdown, the months of October and November were skipped and will not be reported. The 0.3% figure matches that of September. The two key contributors to the continued rise in costs were shelter at 0.4% and food at 0.7%. Overall

Welcome everyone to 2026. Hopefully, you had a good and fun Christmas and New Year’s holiday break and are now settling back into your normal routines. It is certainly colder here in Omaha today than during the time I spent in Florida. However, it is always a good feeling to get the new year started and to begin assessing the challenges ahead. We hope you will once again take “the ride” with us as we view and interpret upcoming economic trends and how the financial markets re

In my update last week, I said the economic numbers were indicating a stronger economy than originally forecast. Indeed, the third-quarter GDP report showed the economy grew at a 4.3% rate. This was much stronger than the forecasted level of 3.7% and also exceeded the second-quarter growth rate of 3.8%. In actuality, it was the highest growth number since the third quarter of 2023. The growth factors contributing to this attractive level were consumer spending and exports. Bo

We continue to deal with the government recovering from its shutdown, which lasted from October 1 through mid-November. This disruption has been evident in the slow release of economic data, particularly monthly comparisons across various indicators. However, it does appear we are seeing government-controlled data becoming more available on a timely basis. Nonfarm Payrolls for October showed a decline of 105,000 jobs as seen in the chart below. However, this number was large

The government is still somewhat slow in catching up with new economic data following the extended shutdown. However, we have been seeing some releases that are helping to form our economic views. Today, we had the ADP Employment Change release. Now, granted, these are produced from private sources and are not government-sponsored indicators. Regardless, this is a key indicator of how private businesses are doing within the U.S. The November number showed 32,000 fewer jobs th

Finally, after 43 days, the U.S. Government is now open and we saw the first significant economic release yesterday morning. Initially, we were told both the September and October employment numbers would be announced. However, only the September numbers were released, and the October numbers are now set to be given in December along with the November payroll figures. As we all have seen, no one won with the government being shut down for such an extended period, and it is ta

With the ongoing shut-down of the U.S. Government, we are not receiving the normal economic releases we would normally be seeing. While this is one of the frustrating aspects of the shut-down, it is probably not as critical as other parts. In this regard, we are watching big picture initiatives by various companies and also earnings reports from individual corporations. It seems the employment picture might be becoming a concern. We are seeing some layoffs in various industri

For those wondering why you have not seen an Economic Update in the past few weeks, the shutdown of the U.S. Government that began on October 1 st has been disruptive to the release of economic data during this time. Government agencies are primarily responsible for gathering the data used to produce the various economic releases we follow on a constant basis to help formulate our economic thought process and forecasts. We are continuing to follow economic trends, as best we

This morning we saw the August release of Personal Income, which increased 0.4%. This matched the July gain and marked the third monthly...